Pink and purple azaleas and yellow forsythia are blooming beautifully and vibrantly, and the leaves are that intense bright green that only appears right when they first pop out. Yes, Spring is here early and it is gorgeous. The good news is that the real estate market is also starting to look a little brighter.  Check out the statistics comparing the Mount Washington Valley year-to-date with the same time last year. *

The first half of 2009 was one of the worst times in our real estate market in 20 years, so we do need to take these numbers with a little bit of salt. I personally sold over 3 times as much real estate in the 2^nd half of 2009 than the 1^st half. That being said, things are really moving in a positive direction. Sales numbers are up, sales volume is up, prices are even up!  The only number moving in a negative direction is the days on market, showing properties taking longer to sell.

One thing to keep in mind before we get too giddy about these numbers is that the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit ended on April 30^th. This tax credit had really been a driving force in our market. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), first time homebuyers made up 47% of all transactions in 2009, and the average sale price for a  first time homebuyer was $156,000 nationwide.**  To qualify for the tax credit, these buyers had to put a home under contract by 4/30/10 and close by 6/30/10. In July we will begin to see what direction the real estate market is heading without government subsidies.

We will continue to closely monitor the real estate activity in order to ensure that you remain informed on current market conditions.

Joy

* Based on information from NNEREN for the periods 1/1/09-5/1/09 and 1/1/10-5/1/10 for the towns of Albany, Bartlett, Chatham, Conway, Eaton, Hales Location, Harts Location, Jackson, and Madison.

**http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/11/survey_record

— By Peter Francese

Here are three things New Hampshire REALTORS® can celebrate this spring:

• Home sales are up 13 percent, condo sales are up 30 percent, and prices are up over the first quarter of 2009;
• New Hampshire non-farm employment is rising: we’re only state in region to see an increase; and
• Our state still leads region in the key index of economic activity, and it is also rising

Not only are New Hampshire home sales up over the first quarter of last year, but median home prices have also risen 6 percent statewide and are up in seven of our state’s 10 counties. Condominium prices are also 4 percent above the first quarter of last year.

Half the counties in our state saw double digit home sales increase over last year, which suggests an awfully fast start for the year, no doubt aided by the homebuyer’s tax credit. But economic indicators in our state are so much better than other New England states that tax break or none, we are likely to fare better than they will in terms of home sales, unless we choose to follow their lead with expanded gambling.

New Hampshire’s unemployment rate was 7.1 percent in February (the latest numbers available), which was more than two points below the national rate and the second lowest in New England (Please see charts below). But the unemployment rate only looks at the small part of the picture.

The full part is measured by total non-farm employment, which in New Hampshire has been increasing since the middle of last year. Since then, 11,000 more people are working in our state, and we’re the only state in the region where that’s happening.

These indicators of New Hampshire’s economic health both point in the same direction. Our state is on track to lead New England out of this awful recession, and our real estate market is also likely to recover faster than other nearby states.

New Hampshire was again voted as the safest state in the nation, and we are still ranked fourth in terms of economic activity index. That index is also rising and is up almost three points since mid-2009. Again, we are the only New England state where that measure of our economic well-being has increased since then.

On nearly every measure of quality of life, as well as many other indicators, New Hampshire leads the nation and all other New England states. But our longstanding New Hampshire advantage is being threatened as never before by the rush to permit slots and casinos. To lose our substantial advantage would be an irreversible tragedy.

Here’s just one example: Property taxes per person in 2007 in Connecticut were $2,313.42, compared to $1,917.83 in New Hampshire (17 percent less than Connecticut), according to the Census Bureau. Adding lots of gambling venues certainly hasn’t done much to lower Connecticut’s property taxes.

The bottom line is this: Both demographic and economic trends are quite negative for the Southern New England states. Income taxes and sales taxes, along with slot machines and casino gambling, have not improved either their economy or their demography. Do we really want to do what they have done and go where they have gone?

Table I: New Hampshire unit sales and median price first quarter 2010

The fireworks have fizzled, the champagne’s been drunk, and most of us are in the midst of the first 5 day work week in awhile. Let’s take a look at what happened to the real estate market in the Mount Washington Valley in 2009. Below is a chart of single family homes and condos in the valley.

As you can see, number of sales and sales volume are up, but prices continued to fall. 2008 was a pretty dismal year for real estate, so saying that number of sales and sold volume are up compared to it, is not really a big event.

But, at JtRealty Lakefront to Mountainside we aren’t exactly complaining … lower prices are helping to increase the number of sales by enticing buyers with great deals, but the market still has a long way to go before it fully recovers. New Hampshire Public Radio recently published some very interesting statistics, including the fact that foreclosures were up 30% for the month of November, compared to the same month in 2008. To read the full article about foreclosures and unemployment rates, click here.  The statistics and information available lead us to believe that it is still an upward battle to get back where we were in 2005 and 2006.

My conclusions:

1. If you want to sell, you will make up for it on the buying side. But if you don’t have to sell, holding on to your real estate for another 3-5 years might be your best option.
2. If you are a buyer, there are going to be plenty of great deals to be had in 2010. If you want to be the first to know about them click here to sign up for our automatic property alert, or check out JtRealty Lakefront to Mountainside best buys.

Here’s to a successful 2010!

PS – If you want further details on NH real estate statistics, check out the NH Association of Realtors website. It’s a great resource.

* Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for the period 1/1/08-12/31/08 and 1/1/09-12/31/09  for the towns of Albany, Bartlett, Brownfield, Chatham, Conway, Eaton, Fryeburg, Hales Location, Harts Location, Jackson and Madison

Well, it is virtually impossible to tell when a real estate market has hit the bottom, until you are no longer there. But based on the statistics, there is strong evidence that YES the residential (single family homes and condos) market here is there.  Look at these year-to-date numbers in the Mount Washington Valley compared with the same period in 2008.*

For the first time in this recession we are seeing the number of sales AND the sale volume rise! Prices have come down far enough to entice people to start buying again. This is very good news.

While it still might be another 3-5 years before prices begin to rise significantly, and possibly longer until we are at pre-recession values, the fact that properties are now moving at a faster pace is a huge step in the right direction.

If you are ready to buy or invest, now is the time to do it while there’s still some good inventory left. Click here for a list of JtRealty Lakefront to Mountainside BEST BUYS.

Stay tuned next month for the 2009 year in review statistics and commentary.

Joy

* Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for the period 1/1/08-12/1/08 and 1/1/09-12/1/09  for the towns of Albany, Bartlett, Brownfield, Chatham, Conway, Eaton, Fryeburg, Hales Location, Harts Location, Jackson and Madison.

The last 2 months have been so busy it feels like we are working in a hot market again. Just this past weekend I put 3 of my listings under contract, negotiated an offer on a house within walking distance to the Attitash Bear Peak baselodge, and today I am negotiating for a buyer on a really cute house in North Conway Village. If you saw the state of my desk right now you would know it’s all true.

So check this out … the numbers continue to drop but not so much in the 3^rd Quarter, which is traditionally our busiest season. When we compare the stats year-to-date in the Mount Washington Valley, this is what we get:*

Of course the first time home-buyer tax credit expires November 30th and this $8,000 credit is really pushing buyers. It will be interesting to see how the market responds once this amazing promotion is over. 

 If you would like some advice on how to sell your property for more money in less time, send an email to Joy@JTRealty.com.  I just put a condo under contract that was listed September 15, had 2 showings in the first week, 2 offers a few days later, and is now under contract! Further proof that even in a down market if you price your property right, and it shows well, it will sell quickly.

Check back for further updates on the state of the Mount Washington Valley Real Estate market.

Lakefront to Mountainside,

Joy

*Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for the period1/1/08-10/1/08 and 1/1/09-10/1/09 for the towns of  Albany, Bartlett, Brownfield, Eaton, Fryeburg, Hales Location, Hart’s Location, Jackson and Madison.  

July 3^rd is looking like a very good day. The sun finally broke through the clouds after who knows how many days of rain in the Mount Washington Valley, and the first half of the year real estate statistics are much better than I was expecting!

Here is a look at the first half of 2009 and how it compares with the same period of 2008.*

As you can see, the number of Sold listings is the same! Sold volume is down, but not nearly as much as it was in the first quarter (click here for 1^st quarter stats). The average days on market is decreasing, always a good sign, and the number of new listings coming onto the market is rising. All of these are indicators that the single family home market in the North Conway NH area is starting to stabilize. What a great way to kick off the summer, our busiest season of the year.

The condo market continues to lag behind the single family homes market in the Mount Washington Valley. However these numbers are a serious improvement over the 1^st quarter numbers. (Click here to see them). If you remember, condo sales in the 1^st quarter were down 50% and sales volume was down 63%. Although prices and sales are still declining, they are not declining at such a drastic pace. This is definitely positive news, and hopefully the “upward trend” will continue through the summer months.

Extremely low interest rates and the benefits of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit are definitely helping to turn the Mount Washington Valley real estate market around.  Now, if we could just get this weather to turn around, we will be in really good shape for the summer!

As always, feel free to email me with any questions, comments or for any specific data.

Happy Independence Day!

Joy

*Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for 1/1/08-6/30/08 and 1/1/09-6/30/09  for the towns of Albany, Bartlett, Conway, Eaton, Hales Location, Jackson & Madison.

Buying real estate can certainly be an emotional experience especially for a first time home-buyer, your retirement home, or choosing the perfect vacation spot to escape on the weekends. However, when deciding to make a large financial commitment it is important to take a step back from the emotional side and look at the statistics to see what really is happening with real estate values. A good statistical analysis not only helps us understand the current real estate climate, but can also help us to understand and hypothesize what might happen in the future. I keep track of this monthly and will share them with you here.

Let’s take a look at the 1^st Quarter numbers for real estate in the Mount Washington Valley. I have broken it down into two different segments of the real estate market: Single Family Homes (SFH), and Condos.

1. Single Family Homes

As you can see in the chart the number of sales is up, the total sales volume is up, and the average sale price and days on market is down. The good news is that prices have finally come down enough to entice people to buy real estate! Supply and demand are starting to equalize and we are on the path to recovery and a stabilized market. If this trend continues through the 2^nd quarter it could mean that we have hit the bottom.

2. Condos

Unlike SFH sales, the condo market is not recovering as quickly. Part of the reason is the difficulty in obtaining a loan for a condo. Many banks will not lend money for a condo with an onsite rental program, or if there are any financial issues with the association or current owners.  The condo market will come back when the banks regain confidence in lending and start loosening their guidelines.

I would like to think that the rising number of Single Family Home sales is a trend that will continue, and will wake up the condo market. We will know more at the end of the 2^nd Quarter, so tune in then for another update on What’s Really Happening to Real Estate Values in the Mount Washington Valley.

If you have any questions about these statistics or would like statistics for a specific town/property type please email Joy@JTRealty.com.

Happy Spring!

Joy

*Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for 1/1/08-3/31/08 and 1/1/09-3/31/09  for the towns of Albany, Bartlett, Conway, Eaton, Hales Location, Harts Location, Jackson & Madison.